Thursday, April 14, 2005

tip of the week

Two tips this week to make up for last week.

1. Never follow a bad shot with a stupid shot.
2. Don't miss it on the short side.

1. If you find yourself in trouble, just take the smart, safe play in order to keep your score down. My rule of thumb is that if you're contemplating a brilliant recovery shot, don't try it if you're going to be telling someone about it later. "Heroic" might pay off one time in 20, so if you're more interested in doing well than in having a "dude, you shoulda seen it" story, just punch it back into the fairway.
2. A lot of pin placements are just for suckers. While your chance at getting birdie might increase by shooting at the pin, your chance of getting a high score will increase, as will your average score. Of course, if it's the 18th hole and you _need_ a birdie to make the cut or win a bet, then your best choice is the one that gives you the greatest likelihood of getting birdie. But on average, you'll come out ahead by going for the fat part of the green. (Additionally, if you miss on the short side, you'll have a more difficult time getting your next shot close.)

For those coming here for ultimate tips, what does this have to do with anything? Well, in both cases, this generally means the best option is generally not the one that offers the highest reward or the ones that has the best chance for a maximum reward, but rather the one that yields the highest reward/risk ratio. (And it doesn't just mean "dump it" any more than it means you should just use a putter for the whole hole. If you're in the woods and you can punch out while still hitting it down the fairway, that's a better option than simply punching out sideways. You have to decide what the best option is.) And #2 also means that you shouldn't get too cute trying to hit something exactly. On your pulls, maybe try landing it 10 yards from the sideline instead of 1 yard. And on a throw to a comeback cut with a defender charging hard on the inside, lead the guy a little bit instead of trying to hit him in perfect stride, since you can miss a little bit on the leading side without turning it over, while the in-stride pass cannot afford to be off even a foot to the inside.

1 comment:

luke said... has proven to be somewhat less popular than rec.parinella. frisbee (or perhaps the stories are so enthralling that they require no reply).

oh for the golden years of lastweek, when this 'forum' was the fastest growing site (%wise) on the web.

perhaps a guest appearance from john 'the kid' hammond, to thrill fans worldwide with the decription of his come from the snack counter exploits at fools '05. Believe me, no replay is necessary, and he knows the stats vividly.

it reminds me of a story of dominique wilkins... in a timeout, late in the game, crunch time, doc rivers asked, how many you got nique? nique replied, without missing a beat, "32, but if the ref hadn't blown the call in the second i'd have 34." history does not record the outcome of the game, and neither did nique.