“You know he got a chance he can win. White dudes like to do
shit like that...vote for the wrong dude as a goof. They get drunk and shit and
go like:
‘Let's vote for Jesse Jackson!’
‘I just voted for Jesse Jackson!’
And next day would be like this: ‘He f---in' won?’" – Eddie Murphy in
Delirious, talking about Jesse Jackson running for President.
In POTUS elections, many people “vote their conscience”.
Instead of supporting the crazy Republican, they vote for the Libertarian candidate.
Or instead of supporting the crazy Democrat, they vote for the Green Party
candidate. They know that their own vote won’t affect the outcome since the election
is “safe” (or unwinnable) in their red or blue state, so might as well make a
statement.
Or sometimes, as Mr. Murphy suggests, they’ll vote
non-optimally for a goof.
So Bill Belichick didn’t get into the Pro Football Hall of
Fame. We still don’t know who did get elected, but we do know that he did not.
DISCLAIMER: I am not a Pats fan.
Background: A 50 person committee (mix of NFL people and
media) has a slate of five finalists (each selected from separate semifinalist
groups of 8-10): one Coach, one Contributor, and three Senior Players (last
played no later than 1999; two of the three had their primes in the 1970s and
the third in the 1980s, retiring after 1993 season). Each committee member
votes for 3 of the 5. Anyone getting 80% is in (if no one gets 80%, the top
vote getter is in). (The Hall specifies that it’s “top three getting 80%”, but
it’s impossible for four candidates to each get 80%.) Last year, only one of
the five was picked. This year's class hasn't been announced yet, but it was
leaked that Belichick was not selected.
Belichick had "spirit" issues, as he was directly implicated in one cheating scandal (Spygate) and was there for another (Deflategate), plus was innovative with finding loopholes in the rules. He was known to be gruff with the media. Other coaches or owners may have resented him. So that could explain some of the non-votes (at least 11 of the 50 did not vote for him).
So there are many possible reasons for not getting to 80%:
1.
The Contributor was Bob Kraft, owner of the
Patriots. One could imagine a voter saying, "i'm not going to use two of
my three votes on candidates from one team." And some might actually think
Kraft was more worthy, or was friends with Kraft but disliked Belichick and
chose Kraft.
1a. Same logic, but “I’m not going
to use two of my three votes on non-Players.”
2. It's not a given that the Senior Players will have
another shot so voters may have prioritized voting for them. They might still be eligible but there are
many other worthy candidates in the category. In fact, one voter has come forward
and cited this factor One
reason Bill Belichick isn’t first-ballot Hall of Famer. | Kansas City Star
3. Voters may have thought that Belichick was getting in
regardless so they used their precious votes on other people they felt worthy. What’s
it matter if he gets 94% or 96%? But bumping someone else from 78% to 80% is
huge. The problem is when other voters act this way, too. (He f---in’ lost?!) I
think this was true of some of the voters but no one is going to cop to that
this year.
4. The method matters and the quality of the other
candidates matters. This exact process was only put in place last year and
resulted in only one of the five being elected. If all candidates are exactly
equal, each one gets 60%, far from the 80% threshold. If there is one guarantee
on the slate, then the other four only have a 50% starting point. (Conversely,
if one of the five is clearly not qualified and no one votes for them, the
baseline is 75%.) So it wouldn’t be surprising if the votes are split and one
or even zero candidates are elected. If you had a Yes/No on each candidate, that
would reduce this problem. (Voters might feel reluctant to flood the Hall with
five new inductees so might vote No on the least qualified even if that
candidate is above the bar.)
5. It's hard to compare across groups and eras. Was Bob
Kraft a more impactful owner than Roger Craig was as a running back? How can
you even start to quantify this? Even comparing players, was LC Greenwood the
defensive lineman better than Ken Anderson the quarterback? Greenwood’s teams
were more successful (Go Steelers!) but there are nine Steelers from that era
(plus the coach and owner) in the Hall. There are two Bengals, one of whom came
on after Anderson’s prime.
5. Then there’s jealousy and general dislike. Bill Polian of
the long-time rival Colts was one of the voters and claims not to remember
whether he voted for Belichick or not but was rumored to have spoken out
against Belichick in the committee meeting (it’s a violation of the rules for anyone
to reveal what happened in that meeting other than revealing their own votes if
they wish). The Colts suffered often, occasionally unfairly, at the hands of
the Patriots. To paraphrase Mencken, he couldn’t get his hand upon the collar
of his superior, so he got his thumb into his eyes.
6. And, of course, the scandal(s). Belichick was implicated
in Spygate (filming other team’s practices), which cost them a big fine and a
top draft pick. He was coach during Deflategate which led to Tom Brady (who
will certainly get in first ballot, though through a different voting process) being
suspended for four games but was never himself implicated. And he never hesitated
to exploit a loophole in the rules no matter how unfair it seemed. Plus he was
a bit gruff and didn’t suffer fools in the media. But football has had an
interesting relationship with rule-breakers, certainly when compared to
baseball or ultimate. Players have been suspended for steroid use without
getting much flack (including possible GOAT Lawrence Taylor, who was
first-ballot Hall inductee). (Take a look here List
of suspensions in the NFL - Wikipedia and see how many of your favorite
players are named.) Two Hall of Famers were even suspended for a year for
gambling on football! I acknowledge that this should cost him some points, but
his resume is just so far above the line that he’d had to go full OJ to fall
below the line (and even then, I’m not sure; one of the Senior Player finalists
last year killed his wife and himself but CTE had driven him mad). So football
seems to be a little inconsistent on this one.
Then there are the ripple effects, at least if the current
process holds. Mike Holmgren (coach for the Packers and Seahawks) was a
finalist last year but the Coach committee chose Belichick as its sole finalist
this year. Presumably Belichick will be chosen again next year and get elected
after serving his penance, so Holmgren and other top coaches Coach
Blue-Ribbon Committee names 9 Semifinalists for Hall of Fame Class of 2026 |
Pro Football Hall of Fame will get bumped. Additionally, next year’s Contributor
and Senior Players will be on the ballot with a near-unanimous choice, leaving
fewer available votes to get to 80%, leading to more of a backlog.
The scandals alone are not enough to explain the failure to
elect, so most analyses which focus on just that are misguided. If they don’t
fix the process, it’s just going to get worse. You might not agree with the rationale of #1-5, but that's how some people see it.
